This Article Full Text Full Text (PDF) Alert me when this article is cited Alert me if a correction is posted Citation Map Services Email this article to a friend Similar articles in this journal Similar articles in PubMed Alert me to new issues of the journal Add to Personal Folders Download to citation manager Author home page(s): Jose L. Navia Sharif Al-Ruzzeh Walter Rodriguez Carlos Nojek Permission Requests Citing Articles Citing Articles via HighWire Citing Articles via Google Scholar Google Scholar Articles by Carosella, V. C. Articles by Nojek, C. Search for Related Content PubMed PubMed Citation Articles by Carosella, V. C. Articles by Nojek, C. Related Collections Related Article

The first Latin-American risk stratification system for cardiac surgery: can be used as a graphic pocket-card score

^a Instituto de Cardiología, Hospital Español de Buenos Aires, 2975 Belgrano Avenue, Ciudad autónoma de Buenos Aires, C1209AQK, Buenos Aires, Argentina
^b Instituto FLENI, 2325 Montañeses, Ciudad autónoma de Buenos Aires, C1428AQK, Buenos Aires, Argentina
^c Cleveland Clinic Foundation, 9500 Euclid Avenue, Cleveland, OH 44195, USA
^d Clínica Suizo-Argentina, 1461 Pueyrredón Avenue, Ciudad autónoma de Buenos Aires, C1118AQK, Buenos Aires, Argentina
^e Sanatorio de la Trinidad, 4720 Cerviño Avenue, Ciudad autónoma de Buenos Aires, C1425AQK, Buenos Aires, Argentina

*Corresponding author. Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Instituto FLENI, 2325 Montañeses C1428AQK, Belgrano, Buenos Aires, Argentina. Tel.: +54 11-5777-3200; fax: +54 11-5777-3209.

E-mail address: drcarosella{at}yahoo.com (V.C. Carosella).

This study aims to develop the first Latin-American risk model that can be used as a simple, pocket-card graphic score at bedside. The risk model was developed on 2903 patients who underwent cardiac surgery at the Spanish Hospital of Buenos Aires, Argentina, between June 1994 and December 1999. Internal validation was performed on 708 patients between January 2000 and June 2001 at the same center. External validation was performed on 1087 patients between February 2000 and January 2007 at three other centers in Argentina. In the development dataset the area under receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was 0.73 and the Hosmer–Lemeshow (HL) test was P=0.88. In the internal validation ROC curve was 0.77. In the external validation ROC curve was 0.81, but imperfect calibration was detected because the observed in-hospital mortality (3.96%) was significantly lower than the development dataset (8.20%) (P<0.0001). Recalibration was done in 2007, showing excellent level of agreement between the observed and predicted mortality rates on all patients (P=0.92). This is the first risk model for cardiac surgery developed in a population of Latin-America with both internal and external validation. A simple graphic pocket-card score allows an easy bedside application with acceptable statistic precision.

Key Words: Risk stratification; Cardiac surgery; Outcome

Related Article

eComment: The first Latin-American risk stratification system. A timely report

Carlos A. Mestres
Interactive CardioVascular and Thoracic Surgery 2009 9: 208. [Full Text] [PDF]

This article has been cited by other articles:

				C. A. Mestres eComment: The first Latin-American risk stratification system. A timely report Interactive CardioVascular and Thoracic Surgery, August 1, 2009; 9(2): 208 - 208. [Full Text] [PDF]