This Article Full Text Full Text (PDF) Alert me when this article is cited Alert me if a correction is posted Citation Map Services Email this article to a friend Similar articles in this journal Similar articles in PubMed Alert me to new issues of the journal Add to Personal Folders Download to citation manager Author home page(s): Luc Noyez Permission Requests Citing Articles Citing Articles via Google Scholar Google Scholar Articles by Huijskes, R. V.H.P. Articles by Tijssen, J. G.P. Search for Related Content PubMed PubMed Citation Articles by Huijskes, R. V.H.P. Articles by Tijssen, J. G.P. Related Collections Great vessels

Predictive models for thoracic aorta surgery. Is the Euroscore the optimal risk model in the Netherlands?

^a University Medical Center Groningen, P.O. Box 30.001 9700 RB Groningen, The Netherlands
^b St. Antonius Hospital, Nieuwegein, The Netherlands
^c University Medical Center St. Radboud, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
^d Amphia Hospital, Breda, The Netherlands
^e Onze Lieve Vrouwe Gasthuis, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
^f Catharina Hospital, Eindhoven, The Netherlands
^g Vrije Universiteit Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
^h Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

*Corresponding author. Tel.: +31-50-361-2355; fax: +31-50-361-4955.

E-mail address: r.v.huijskes{at}planet.nl (R.V.H.P. Huijskes).

Prediction models do not optimally perform in the case of aorta surgery. We tried to define models that predict intensive care death for patients who underwent thoracic aorta surgery in the Netherlands. Therefore, we used data of 1290 patients who underwent interventions on the thoracic aorta from 1997 to 2002 which were prospectively collected in seven centers. One outcome was examined: intensive care death. Predicting models were made by multiple logistic regression analysis. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was used to study the discriminatory abilities of these models. We compared the models with the Euroscore. Eleven percent of the patients died during operation or on intensive care. Age, creatinine level 150 µmol/l, poor left ventricular ejection fraction and urgent indication were most related with intensive care-death. Prolonged extracorporal circulation and deep hypothermia were also of importance in the peri-operative model. The models performed better than the Euroscore. We conclude that the developed models perform relatively well in discriminating patients with respect to intensive care-death and even better than the Euroscore.

Key Words: Outcome prediction; Thoracic aorta surgery; Intensive care death